A recent United Nations report warns that East and Southern African nations face severe fertilizer shortages and a looming food price surge triggered by military disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the disruption stems from rising military tensions in the Middle East, where a February 28 attack by the United States and Israel on Iran prompted Tehran to shut down the strategically vital waterway.

This move has effectively severed a key global supply route, not only for oil, of which the Strait carries about 20 percent of global trade, but also for fertilizers, an often overlooked yet critical commodity for agricultural economies.

In its report titled “Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development,” UNCTAD underscores that roughly one-third of global maritime fertilizer trade, equivalent to about 16 million tonnes, passes through the Strait. For East and Southern Africa, this disruption is particularly severe due to the region’s heavy reliance on imports routed through the Persian Gulf.

The data paints a stark picture of exposure. In 2024, more than half of Sudan’s fertilizer imports, 54 percent, transited through the Strait, while Tanzania accounted for 31 percent, Somalia 30 percent, Kenya 26 percent, and Mozambique 22 percent. This heavy dependence places these countries squarely at the center of the unfolding supply chain shock.

The implications for consumers are profound. The region is already contending with climate-related stresses, including persistent droughts in the Horn of Africa and destructive cyclones in Mozambique.

A sudden disruption in fertilizer supply threatens to sharply reduce agricultural productivity, particularly for staple crops such as maize, thereby driving food prices upward and placing them beyond the reach of many households.

UNCTAD warns that the effects of the crisis are already rippling through global markets. The Gulf region is not only a critical transit corridor but also a major producer of key inputs such as sulphur, used in phosphatic fertilizers, and natural gas, the primary feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilizers. As instability pushes up energy prices, fertilizer production costs rise in tandem, setting off a chain reaction that ultimately feeds into higher food prices.

The report highlights a well-established economic linkage: increases in gas prices tend to drive up fertilizer prices. Compounding the problem are rising transport-related costs, including freight charges, maritime fuel prices, and insurance premiums, all of which contribute to a broader escalation in the cost of living, especially for vulnerable populations.

Particularly concerning is the disruption of urea supplies, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer in East and Southern Africa. Of the 16 million tonnes of fertilizer imported via the Strait in 2024, 67 percent was urea, a critical input for smallholder farmers, especially those cultivating maize in countries such as Kenya and Tanzania.

An additional 20 percent consisted of diammonium phosphate (DAP), while 9 percent consisted of ammonium dihydrogen phosphate, both of which are essential for root development and early plant growth.

Early signs of strain are already visible, with nitrogen-based fertilizer prices recording significant increases on global markets, alongside more modest but notable rises in phosphatic fertilizers.

Beyond the immediate supply shock, the UNCTAD report also highlights a structural vulnerability: the high concentration of fertilizer trade. Gulf countries account for 13 percent of global nitrogen exports and 9 percent of phosphate-based fertilizer nutrients, leaving importing regions highly exposed to geopolitical disruptions.

With no clear resolution to the Middle East conflict in sight, governments across East and Southern Africa face difficult policy choices. They may be compelled to identify alternative supply routes, likely at significantly higher costs, or implement targeted subsidy programmes to cushion farmers and consumers.

Failure to act decisively risks triggering a sharp escalation in food prices, potentially undermining fragile economic recoveries and exacerbating social and economic instability across the region.